A small biotech company sought to acquire a supportive care oncology product in phase 3 development. They asked 3elms to perform commercial due diligence and develop a forecast for the product to support the transaction.
We created a disease dossier describing the condition, etiology, treatment algorithm, and competitive landscape. By looking at a segmented potential patient population, we identified unmet needs and sized segments.
3elms conducted in-depth primary research with physicians and payers in the US and EU5 to understand treatment dynamics and test potential product profile. We also created a development, financial, and go-to-market plan. Lastly, we generated a forecast estimate of commercial potential with scenarios based on clinical trial outcomes and price points.
Through primary and competitive research, we determined that existing clinical data targeted a patient segment with low symptom burden. Overall, physicians and payers did not believe this population required treatment at the suggested price points.
We were able to identify a high-need patient segment and developed a clinical trial plan to address this population. Lastly, we determined the time and cost to perform additional clinical trials, coupled with the small high-need patient segment, made the return on investment lower than client targets.